According to dictionary reference.com the
verb to “grind” is defined in a number of different ways. One of which is “to
wear, smooth, or sharpen by abrasion or friction.” After my almost two week
"sabbatical" I have decided to embody the essence of this quote and use it as my guiding
principle this week. Maybe everyone out there who describe themselves as
“grinders” are already applying this mindset to their DFS games every week but
it’s interesting to think about this definition when it comes to picking
fantasy teams.
Every week we’re faced with a rocky surface
of options all of which have a number of outcomes. It’s like a boat attempting
to dock on a jagged coastline while the waves are crashing and the winds are
howling. There’s a couple of thousand other boats attempting to do the same
thing as well, except they want to do it better than you and possibly take you
out in the process. It’s a lot of pressure. Sure you could take a shot and aim
for what looks like a safe place to land. You didn’t actually plan this
scenario out before but the water looks calmer there and everyone else seems to
be aiming for that spot so what could go wrong?
Rocks. That’s what could go wrong. Big,
giant, boat destroying rocks forged over millions of years just lying in wait
for your stupid ass to attempt to dock your expensive boat right on their
house. Now if you had done your
due diligence and scouted the area in the days before this strange thousand
boat race you’ve entered you would have known about this dangerous landing spot
and avoided it completely. But you didn’t and now your dead.
That boat is your fantasy team this week
unless you put in the hours of work beforehand. That race for a landing spot
with thousands of other boats and howling winds is you at 12.30 am on Sunday as
you frantically cobble together line-ups while being simultaneously distracted
by the artistic beauty of alsmizzle’s beard on the last rotogrinders live
segment before the line up lock and those rocks are god damn LeSean McCoy. I
actually like LeSean McCoy this week (I’m pretty sure every FF expert has said
this every week since the beginning of time) but I just refuse to watch him
scrabble from side to side behind his O-line again this week as he destroys
another one of my teams.
The point is that this week I’ve been all
about decreasing the possibility of having to chuck teams together last minute
(wear or smooth a surface) by methodically going through each game (by abrasion
and friction, that’s how I envisage my brain cells working, I may or may not be
a certified medical doctor). In saying that I’m not ruling out making some
crazy last minute line-ups as truth be told I love that last minute rush before
the 1pm lock. This definitely isn’t a way to be profitable long term mind you
but hey, it’s fun!
So I feel pretty confident in my research
this week, as confident as we can be what with the 20 feet of snow in Buffalo,
or whatever they’re reporting at the moment, and the numerous injuries. At this
point in the week I’m just about ready to utilize the next definition of
“grind”, that is “to reduce to fine particles, as by pounding or crushing.”
With all respect to NFL players I’m
describing them as particles here.
As I’ve done the past few weeks I picked a team first thing Tuesday
Morning without research and entered it into a large field GPP. Below are the
changes I’ve decided to make to that team as a result of the “grind”. One more thing before I get to the
team, another definition of “grind” is “to oppress, torment, or crush”. This
one needs no explanation.
Quarterback
Josh McCown $6,600 – Josh McCown $6,600
I had a list of three QB’s I was targeting,
the other two being Cutler and Kaepernick, but in the end I stayed with McCown.
Also as you’ll see from my RB & WR’s picks I think I’ve found quite a bit
of value this week so when I went back to the QB spot I could have upgraded to
someone like Rodgers but I decided to use that extra money elsewhere. Chicago
gives up on average the second most points to opposing QB’s in the league
coming in just behind the Jets. They also grade out as the seventh worst pass
coverage unit according to PFF. I wanted to have some shares in the unstoppable
Mike Evans but I hate buying high on a player after a huge week never mind
after three huge weeks and subsequent price increases. I remember writing this
blog all the way back in week 6 when the Bears were playing the Falcons in
Atlanta. I was so thoroughly convinced that the game would be a shoot out it
and the Falcons would have to air it out to keep up with the high flying Bears
offense that I put Matt Ryan and Julio in almost every team. That was an error.
So a word of warning here as this pick is predicated on the fact that I see
this as a high scoring game with fantasy goodness on both sides but this is the
NFL, nobody knows anything.
Running Backs
DeMarco Murray $8,500 – DeMarco Murray
$8,500
It seems rather pointless to continue after
the nihilistic end to the last paragraph but let’s forge on anyway and discuss
why I’ve decided to stick with the No.1 RB in football who’s chasing the all
time rushing record and going up against a team that gives up the most fantasy
points and the fourth most rushing yards to opposing RB’s. Yeah, not exactly a
shocker here but there is plenty of value just below Murray’s price point so
I’m paying up as a way of getting off the possibly higher owned guys. I’m sure
Forte will have a huge game as well but he’s nearly $1,000 more expensive and
I’m not even expecting Murray to return 4x his price so Forte was just a
stretch too far. Rashad Jennings was the other player I considered here but
like all slightly lower priced players that involves an element of risk. He’s
just back from an injury but more worrying than that, if the Giants continue to
turn the ball over so frequently they’re going to find themselves down pretty
quick in this game which could mean a smaller workload for Jennings. I like
Jennings but I think Murray is a lock for 20+ carries and 4+ catches and as you
will see I have a lot of risk at the WR spot so Murray is the granite based
cornerstone of my team.
Tre Mason $4,200 – Isaiah Crowell $3,800
There’s an element of risk in both of these
players in terms of playing time and obviously I’d swap Terrance West in for
Crowell if it looks like he’ll get the start this week but as of right now
Crowell is on pace to get the majority of the carries. At his price, he’s
likely to be one of the highest owned players this week. That sentence is
generally framed in a negative context but sometimes I find myself relieved
when I hear that, as in, ‘Well if he messes up or gets injured, I’ll be in the
same boat as everybody else’. The idea of living or dying with the masses is
certainly preferential to fading a cheap player due to the possibility of high
ownerships % and watching him go off for a monster score. This is the exact
approach that almost guarantee’s I’ll never take down a large GPP but…..I have
no ‘but’ here actually. That’s just the way it is so I’ll finish this paragraph
with some stats about Crowell’s matchup this week. Atlanta give up the most
fantasy points to opposing RB’s, Josh Gordon is back this week which should
spread the field a little more and he’s only $3,800. If he rushes for 80 yards
and a TD with one or two catches out of the backfield, he’s more than worth the
money. One last thing, Mason and Crowell are 17th and 18th in fantasypros.com
rankings this week so I have them both in a few line-ups.
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon $6,300 – Torrey Smith $5,400
I can’t decide what to do with Josh Gordon
this week. I’ve stashed him on my fantasy team since about week 2 and that all
becomes rather pointless unless I play him in this spot. That feeling along
with the over the top media coverage made me think he was a lock earlier in the
week. Now I’m not so sure. He hasn’t played since August 23rd. In the other
type of football (soccer that is) you always hear pundits talk about how
players coming back from injuries need a few games to get into ‘match fitness’.
Surely that also applies to the NFL? Wasn’t he selling cars and not allowed to
practice with the team? I honestly don’t know what to do with him, reports are
that he’s looked great in practice and the Browns desperately need an explosive
WR so he could have a huge game against the incredibly mediocre Houston
secondary. On the other hand, he might struggle to keep up with the pace of the
game and be a complete non-factor. So I went with Smith instead. I haven’t
rostered Torrey Smith at all this year but I’m looking to exploit a poor New
Orleans secondary and the second highest over under of the week. Obviously
other people will do the same but I’m hoping the majority of people will opt
for the cheaper of the Smith’s who is also getting more targets and will
probably avoid the Saints top CB in Keenan Allen. Torrey has big play ability and Flacco has attempted an average
of 35 passes in his last three games so there should be plenty of opportunities
in what is projected to be a high scoring game.
Vincent Jackson $5,200 – Allen Hurns $3,200
I tried this Vincent Jackson play last week
and it was a resounding failure. I think there’s merit to it again this week but
I don’t feel confident enough to roster both McCown and Jackson in the same
team. He’s clearly not the No.1 WR in this offense anymore so even though the
Bears secondary is eminently beatable, they’re still the Bucs. I’m not having
almost a quarter of my team being held hostage to the possibility of another
apocalyptic meltdown. Hurns is,
along with my next wide receiver pick, a bargain basement play who is in line
to get more targets this week due to a teammate’s injury. Allen Robinson is
done for the year so Hurns should see an uptick in playing time. This pick
could easily blow up in my face of course as Hurns will probably be covered by
PFF’s No.2 ranked CB Vontae Davis and I fully expect him to have maybe one
reception for 9 yards coming into the fourth quarter but I have two words for
you my friends, garbage and time. I see the Colts laying the smack down on the
Jags here (that’s why I’m not touching Denard Robinson this week) and Bortles
throwing it all over the place during the fourth. Hurns should take on
Robinson’s big playmaking role so I’m hoping the Colts take Davis out early and
Bortles can connect with Hurns on a couple of deep balls for a nice ROI.
Kenny Stills $4,200 – Kenny Stills $4,200
This pick follows the same thought process
as the Hurns one, for Robinson read Brandin Cooks. The Saints offense is
generally a bit of a crapshoot in terms of figuring out who’s going to get the
majority of the targets outside of Graham but with Cooks out for the season
you’ve got more of a shot of picking the WR who is going to go off on a given
day. The Ravens have a fantastic
pass rush but with top corner Jimmy Smith also out for the year they have a
secondary that is exploitable. From the WR’s left with Cooks out, Stills has
more big play ability than Colston. They’re each $4,200 this week so I didn’t
have to think too hard about this one as evidenced by the fact I picked him in
my early week team and left him in there.
A note of caution here, or maybe even a disclaimer, all these picks
could blow up in my face so if you feel like rostering Steve Smith Sr, Cecil
Shorts and Marques Colston go right ahead.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski $7,900 – Rob Gronkowski
$7,900
As JMToWin pointed out in his always excellent
piece there are some great cheap TE options this week in the form of Austin
Seferian-Jenkins and Martellus Bennett. But if you think I seriously considered
rostering McCown, Jackson and ASJ on the same team than just stop reading this
right now because your thoughts hurt me and I don’t need that in my safe space.
Bennett is an option and both teams are certainly week to opposing TE’s but
similar to the Bucs I couldn’t force myself to have that much exposure to this
Bears team (see flex position). There’s an alternate universe where I’ve
rostered Cutler, Jackson, Marshall, Evans, Bennett and ASJ in the same team but
that’s not a reality I’m ready for yet. Luckily I’ve managed to waffle on about
the Bucs Bears game (I’m really starting to talk myself into that game now) for
so long as there’s really nothing much to say about Gronk at this stage. I
still think he’s worth the price. He easily offers the highest floor at the TE
position which has been a veritable black hole this year in terms of consistency.
I imagine he’ll be in every line up of mine this week.
Flex
Larry Donnell $3,900 - Brandon Marshall $
7,100
I don’t know why I went for Donnell here, I
guess it’s due to the fact that the Cowboys are pretty weak at defending the TE
position but obviously with the way the rest of this line up shaped up I moved
away from him here. Now that I think of it, does everyone else construct these
teams in the same way as I do? I plug in the players I like and then fill out
the positions around them always leaving the flex position until last. Except
for the odd time that I might go with two TE’s. So generally my flex choice is
usually dictated by how much money I have left. That’s probably not the
smartest strategy. I can see seasoned DFS’ers guffawing at me now but that’s
how I approach life. I like to leave treats for myself. I eat deserts
intentionally slow so that when everyone else is finished I’m still enjoying my
delicious crème brulee. I like to look for bargains where I can find them and
then revel in the delight of being able to get a stud player at the flex spot.
Like a child who can have his pick of any candy he wants. My candy this week is
Marshall. I’ve spoken about this game a lot already so there’s not much more to
say. If you can pick who’s going to have the bigger game out of Marshall and
Jeffery than you’re a better man than I but I remember hearing that, probably
bullshit, narrative of Cutler and Marshall having a great connection going back
years so when their prices are almost identical I’ll take Marshall. For what
it’s worth the Bucs have the 6th worst pass coverage unit per PFF grading out
just one spot lower than the Bears.
Defense
Colts $3,200 – 49ers $3,100
I’ve already used the ‘there’s nothing to
say about defense’ technique to fill out this space in previous weeks so I
don’t know where I go from here. Perhaps leave it out altogether in the coming
weeks? Maybe. As an example, the Chiefs were the No.1 ranked team for this week
according to fantasypros and they scored an earth shattering three points. Both
of these D’s are in play this week, I went with the 49ers here as they are at
home and the Jags have that garbage time potential I mentioned earlier but
really I often think it’s good to pay low on defense and use that money elsewhere. As an example, the Bucs were $2,700 and
they scored 22 DK points last week.
That’s it for this week. This post got a
little out of hand but I did warn you, I’ve spent hours going over DFS stuff so
much so that I feel as if I have another 3,000 word post in me. One final
cautionary note, another definition of “grind” is “to annoy; irritate; irk”.
This particular definition is something we’d all rather avoid this weekend.
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