Saturday, November 22, 2014

Week 8: Draft Kings GPP line-up

Last week I picked a team based purely on my initial feelings early on Tuesday afternoon, then spent the week researching and made any changes to that team later in the week. The modified team performed to an adequate level and so I’m back this week in an attempt to seek out more mediocre performance levels. After all, when you crack the code on how to place 6,385th in the millionaire maker you don’t just bask in the glory, models and fast cars that get thrown at you, you take that sh*t to the bank. 

I forced myself to pick them team as quickly as possible using only the schedule and the other information offered on the site. The first thing I noticed was that there seemed to be more players missing than normal, the London game of course!

It’s only one game and I know you can pick teams before kick off on Sunday but you soon realize how many big name fantasy players there are missing for the Sunday slate of games. Peyton and the rest of the Broncos, Philip Rivers and his hot and cold WR’s, the formally match up proof Julio Jones, and the sneaky-good Joique Bell with the possibility of Megatron coming back. With all that talent missing I think I’m going to stick one or two more teams than usual in the Thursday night competitions.

And while I’m on the Thursday night games, can we stop with the ‘Thursday night games are awful’, stuff.  It seems like no matter what happens there is an army of people who are intent on moaning about the Thursday night game. Once Green Bay destroyed the Vikings to complete a third blowout game in a row it seemed the Thursday night game was forever to be labelled as some sort of sub football, not worthy of our eyes that were being forced to watch. 

If you really think that, here’s a thought: don’t watch them.  But don’t attempt to blame that on the fact they are being played on Thursday night. You never hear anyone, ever complain about the quality of the Sunday night games but the average margin of victory in those games this year is 18.8. Pretty similar to the Thursday night average of 21.7. And if you look even closer you realize that the first Sunday night game between the Broncos and the Colts was, for all intents and purposes, also a blow out as the Broncos led with by 14 points with 4.15 left in the 4th.

It’s similar to the U2/itunes mess last month where people were in uproar over something they were been given for free. FOR FREE! People just love to complain but then again I’m just complaining about those people complaining and perpetuating the complaining! Bottom line is that there is no conclusive proof the Thursday night games are any less competitive than any other games. There are blowouts every single week in the NFL, there just happened to be a few of them in a row on Thursday.

Anyway, on to the team. Just as a reminder, this team is selected without research or fact checking so this is basically a disclaimer for anything that might be incorrect and/or complete rubbish below. I’ll post a fully researched team later in the week to see what changes I want to make after studying the numbers.


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h2. Quarterback

h3. Andrew Luck - $8,800

I had trouble with this one straight away as nothing jumped off the list for me. I actually left this pick second to last to let my remaining budget be the biggest deciding factor. I went with Luck as he’s just so damn reliable and not in an ‘only for cash game’ type of way like say Andre Johnson has become. He’s almost guaranteed to get you 25+ points with the possibility of putting up numbers like Wilson did last week. He’s averaging 28.6 points on Draft Kings with his lowest total of 19.88 coming in week two. His price has dropped by $900 and I think Rodgers, Brees and Wilson will all have a higher ownership percentage than him this week.

h2. Running Backs

h3. Le’Veon Bell - $6,300

This one was easy. He’s probably going to be my Jamaal Charles of last week as I’ll have him in nearly all of my GPP and cash game line-ups. Monday night’s performance hasn’t been factored into his price as he’s actually dropped by $300 this week. He’s a monster in the passing game, hauling in 8 passes last week. He’s going to be highly owned but ultimately that won’t matter if he manages to score 4x times his salary. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make the cut for my team later in the week as well.

h3. Justin Forsett - $5,100

I was split between three guys here. Forsett, McKinnon and Shady McCoy. McCoy’s price has come down after the bye and even though I heard countless people say you wouldn’t get a talent like McCoy  for as cheap as $6,000 again this year you can take him this week for $5,800.  I just didn’t want to pay that much for my second RB and Arizona has a pretty decent run D even with Philadelphia’s offensive line improving every week. I think McKinnon will be highly owned and both players have the problem of other RB’s vulturing their goal line opportunities but I just trust Baltimore’s offense more than Minnesota’s right now.

h2. Wide Receivers

h3. Dez Bryant - $6,900

After Bell, Dez was the next name that jumped out to me. I’ve been consistently fading Dallas (apart from an occasional dabbling in some DeMarco Murray stock) in both DFS and straight up gambling. This has not been one of my strongest strategies. Bryant looked great last week and his price has come down by $600. I really fancied Antonio Brown in this spot but it seems like the Indy D is pretty legit. Generally I like to go against the grain and pick top players coming off lacklustre performances, i.e the Bears but I just can’t trust Cutler and his WR’s after all the crap that has come out this week.


Michael Floyd $4,900 & Jeremy Maclin $5,500

I put these two together as I found picking this position without looking at stats etc. to be pretty tricky. Both players are no.1 receivers going up against pretty mediocre secondary’s. Floyd is at a decent price point and although he’s only averaging 12.1 points a game he’s always a threat to bust a big play. With Carson Palmer definitely back under centre and after a full week of practice, Floyd could have a big game. As you can tell I’m a stickler for picking players with a significant price drop or coming after a poor performance. When I can get both, I can’t say no. Maclin’s price has dropped $1,300 after a 3.6 point outing against the Giants and a bye week. I’ll take that. 

Tight End

Greg Olsen $5,500

He’s the Andrew Luck of the tight end position. He’s been consistently great all year but he’ never been as highly owned as people like Graham, Gronk and Thomas.  I was torn between him and Jordan Reed as both the Seahawks and the Cowboys are weak against opposing tight ends. Reed is cheaper but it’s looking like he’ll have Colt McCoy throwing him the ball so who knows how that will go. I’ve been burned by Cameron and Donnell in this position over the last two weeks so I’m paying up and trying to guarantee at least some points this week. You can construct the greatest roster of all time but if you get between 0-1 points at one position it’s pretty hard to place highly in any competition. Outside of one game where he scored 5 points, Olsen’s lowest scoring day was 13.2. I’ll take it.

Flex

James Jones $4,300

I’ll be honest, I had no clue who to go with here. Maybe I don’t know as much about football as I had first assumed. I’m going with Jones as his name is alliterative and I remember him catching all those touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers that year. Also he’s probably going to be up against Joe Haden who has been awful this year and he gets more targets than his fellow Oakland wide receiver Andre Holmes. So Jones very tentatively makes the cut this week but don’t get comfortable James…

Defense

Cleveland Browns $2,700

If you read anything I wrote last week you’ll know my feelings towards this position. Total crapshoot. The Browns are cheap, they’re up against a rookie QB and they’re home. That’ll do.


Ok, that’s it. I found it really hard to pick this team and I’m glad they’re only been entered into a $2 GPP as I don’t feel confident with a lot of positions. I’ve somehow managed to leave writing this up until Thursday afternoon again so I’m off to begin my proper research now before the Broncos whoop the Chargers tonight. The researched team is 1-0 against the gut team so far so we’ll see how it goes this week. Thanks for reading and feel free to leave comments/criticism below.

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