Week 7: DraftKings GPP lineup (update)

I wrote earlier in the week about how I wanted to build a GPP lineup at the start of the week based purely on my own gut feeling and without any research except for the upcoming schedule. The basic premise was to build one team, spend the week researching and then come back later in the week with what should be the research-enhanced-premium-director's-cut-no-holes-barred-max-turbo-charged line up to end all lineups. We'll see how that hyperbolic names holds up at around 11.42 EST on Monday night.

I'll get to the line up in a moment but what I also wanted to test was my ability, of lack thereof, to make a calculated, rational judgment, whether that decision involved sticking with a player or taking him out. You will often hear people extolling the virtue of 'sticking with your first choice', or to 'just go with your gut', generally due to the fear of that first choice succeeding in whatever form of gambling you're engaged in. I don't believe you can let this type of emotion, and an emotional reaction is all it is, dictate how you wager your money. The performance of a third party will in no way be affected by the decision you make.

Using your first instinct as factor in your decision is all part of the process but it's just a small part. It's frustrating when you have a player in your line up, you take him out at the last minute and he goes crazy but if the decision was correct and you followed a thorough process you should be able to rest easy. We rarely think of the times when we stick with a player due to some perceived emotional attachment, he does nothing and we wonder why we didn't play the guy who had a great match up instead. It's as if the instinct/gut feeling factor is used as an excuse, a way to avoid pushing past that first feeling, analyzing what the correct option is and either trusting your first choice or changing your mind.

Of course if I was sticking with this rationale I should be entering the one line up and taking out any players that were chosen for the wrong reasons but I'm intrigued to compare the performances of both teams. Or it could be that I am actually terrified of not selecting players I was originally gravitating towards because I stupidly believe that if I don't have them on my team they will all individually score 50 points and together they will combine for the highest scoring DFS team of all time and I will have blown my chance to win millions and millions of dollars all because I wanted an intro to this article, who knows.

Ok, with that momentary flash of panic out of the way let's take a look at the team.

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler $7,900 – Colin Kaepernick $6,500

I still like Cutler this week and after I made this pick I have seen plenty of people talking up Kaep’s prospect’s so I think he may be the more contrarian   play here but I just can’t get past Kaepernick’s huge potential upside this week. He had his best game of the year last week scoring 32.42 on Draft Kings which hasn’t been factored into his price, he’s almost inevitably going to be attempting to keep up with Manning’s quest for the TD record and Kaepernick by and large shows up for the big night time games. You feel like he knows how many people are watching him and his biceps strut around under the lights and he plays up accordingly. When Kaepernick is on, he has the potential to be the highest scoring fantasy QB with his powerful running and cannon like arm. My only worry is after hearing so many other people talk him up he’s going to be highly owned.

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles $6,700 - Jamaal Charles $6,700

Couldn’t move past Charles as my No.1 back this week especially with the full point PPR on Draft Kings. He’s almost $3,000 cheaper than DeMarco Murray. That’s insane. He’s averaging 5.21 YPC since returning from a knee injury and he’s also scored two TD’s. He was the highest scoring fantasy RB last year and he looked fully recovered on his return against the Pats in week 4. Draft Kings must calculate their prices with a heavy bias towards last week’s score as there is no way he should be down at $6,700.

Ben Tate $5,300 – Alfred Morris $4,700

Some of this decision was based purely on the idea of moving away from the likely highly owned player in favor of a low owned player with high upside. The Titans rank as the 9th worst rushing defense and the 11th worst defense overall per Football Focus. Morris isn’t a huge target in the passing game although he’s not overlooked completely, catching 5 passes in his last 3 games. He’s only had 13,13 and 12 rushing attempts in those 3 games as Washington was forced to play catch up and that’s where I think his value lies. I can see Washington getting out to a lead early and looking to the run game to burn some clock. The worry here is Helu and his propensity to vulture touchdowns but there has to be some level of concern for a decent GPP play.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall $6,300 - Brandon Marshall $6,300

REVENGE GAME! I hadn’t even thought of this more-than-likely-overblown-narrative when I picked Marshall earlier in the week. Revenge game or not Marshall is one of the best WR’s in the league when he’s healthy and he sure looked back to his best last week when he caught 6 passes for 113 yards against Atlanta. Marshall is a no brainer for me and I found myself looking for reasons to take him out rather than actually finding any. I have him in most of my cash and GPP lineups this week. $3 cash game enthusiasts beware.

Rueben Randle $5,300 – Jordy Nelson $8,200

With the value at RB this week and the saving of having Kaep at QB I decided to focus on the wide receivers. Nelson is the highest priced WR on Draft Kings this week and it’s going to be a tough ask for him to score 4x his salary but I think he has a shot. Nelson leads the league in red zone targets with 14 which work’s out at 2.33 a game. He’s two ahead of Marshall and the player he replace’s here, Rueben Randle. The Panthers have given up 9 receiving TD’s to opposing wide receivers and in a game that projects to be a high scoring affair, look for Rodgers to feed the ball to his favorite target.

Golden Tate $5,900 – Golden Tate $5,900

Another player I just couldn’t move away from as the week went by. That is until this afternoon (Saturday) when I read that the Packers have ruled out their top CB James Shields making Kelvin Benjamin an even more enticing play this week if he suits up. Anyway, Tate, look, the Saints D have been awful inside and outside of a dome, home or away, I don’t need Pro Football Focus to tell me that but if you do, know that those football scientists rank New Orleans 31st in pass coverage and 30th in over all defense. You have to believe Brees and Payton will come out firing this week which makes it all the more likely Stafford will spend the afternoon slinging it around that comfy dome of theirs. (Side note: With the possibility of Graham coming in for red zone packages this week, would a Brees Graham stack be the ballsiest stack of all time?)

Tight Ends

Jordan Cameron $4,600 – Larry Donnell $3,500

I don’t feel good about this one. I’m projecting Cameron for a big day. Hoyer only completed 8 passes last week but 3 of them were to Cameron and he also got the one passing TD. Both of these guys are on my fantasy team so maybe I’m subconsciously hedging my bets but with Cruz out and Donnell’s putrid showings in his last two games I just feel he’s in line for a bounce back game. I also think the Giants are going to straight up win this game so maybe I’m feeling the effects of that beer I just opened. The Cowboys have been weak against the TE position, giving up 424 yards and 4 touchdowns, and you have to think OC Ben McAdoo is going to scheme to get the formerly smoking hot Donnell involved. Also, the majority of people are going to be off him this week which is music to any GPP line up builder’s ears.

Flex

Lamar Miller $5,300 – Sammy Watkins $4,80

The flex spot was probably always going to be changed. I think Miller has value this week but Watkins certainly has a higher upside. He’s a low floor/high ceiling play but that’s what we want for a GPP. He only had 2 catches for 27 yards last week but we can put that down to Revis Island. In Orton’s first game he targeted Watkins 12 times with the rookie receiver grabbing 7 of them for 87 yards. Watkins has undoubted talent and as Orton becomes more familiar with the system he will surely look to target the Bill’s first round draft choice.

Defense/Special Teams

Steelers $2,700 - Browns $3,000

Defense is so hard to predict week to week and this week is no different. The Patriots were the consensus No.1 fantasy play this week and they ended up with a pretty measly 5 points on Draft Kings. I didn’t put too much thought into this except that they’re playing the Jags. Bortles has thrown 7 interceptions in the 4 games he’s played which is always the stat I look for when picking a defense.

So that’s my post research team. I found it hard to get off some players but I’m happy with Charles and Marshall. Tate is probably the only player I would change at this stage as I think he might be more of a cash game play. Brandin Cooks or the aforementioned Benjamin might be better options in that spot but overall I’m pretty happy with the selections. Thanks for reading and feel free to leave comments/criticism below.