Peyton and his post season narrative

Just as night follows day and day follows night, a Peyton Manning post-season loss is swiftly followed by an ‘Is Peyton Manning clutch?’ debate.  Look around you; there is almost certainly one taking place at this very second. Brian from accounting is probably deeming one of the most successful athletes of all time as a ‘choker’ and Skip Bayless is definitely discussing the size and relative strength of Manning’s ‘clutch gene’, which seems like a conversation that should only take place at the doctor’s surgery.

These conversations are almost always rooted in laziness and come from a desire to perpetuate a certain narrative as opposed to calmly assessing the facts. I understand it’s not always possible to factor in every single post season game when jumping to wildly inaccurate conclusions, but that also does not mean we have to stand idly by and watch analyst after analyst blindly trot out the ‘Peyton Manning is a choker’ without first looking at the relevant the evidence.

Let’s get a few things out of the way before we start. Firstly, I am very aware of Manning’s post season record and I am not here to defend it, he has lost 13 post season games and made a number of mistakes during some (this word is crucial) of those games. His post-season record absolutely does not hold up when compared to his regular season record and those 13 losses are the most for any NFL starting quarterback. 

These are all negative statements about Peyton Manning and his ability to win important football games. What they are not, is proof that Manning lacks ability in the ‘clutch’ or justification to make declarative statements such as ‘Peyton Manning collapses under the pressure of the post season.’ And herein lies the problem. In an attempt to fill column inches and pad out podcast minutes people invariably slip into the habit of discussing sport in purely black and white terms.

What if Peyton Manning is in fact a really, really good quarterback who, through a combination of occasional poor play, mistakes from his teammates and a high level of play from the opposing team, lost some important games? What if we didn’t just see things through a strict binary of good/bad and winner/loser? Would that be so bad? Would this approach to analysis lessen the amount of scorching hot takes? Yes, I think it would. So let’s give it a go shall we?

Using Advanced Football Analytics’ WPA (Win Probability Added), explained here, good old fashioned passer rating and less old fashioned QBR (QBR ratings only go back to 2006) let’s take a look at Manning’s 13 losses in the post season with a specific focus on his performance in the fourth quarter. I’ve also added the Vegas line to frame the conversation in terms of the public’s expectation of Manning as I think it is crucial when it comes to they way we analyze his performances. 

One last thing, I considered also using Advanced Football Analytics’ EPA (Expected Points Added) but I decided to focus just on WPA as it ‘simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing’ and ‘it can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch”', as I thought it was more relevant to the discussion.

AFC Divisional Round Sunday January 16^th, 2000

Spread: Colts -5.5

Result: Titan 19 Colts 16

The Colts secured a bye in the regular season finishing with a record of 13-3. In the divisional round they took on a Tennessee Titans team fresh off the ‘music city miracle’ game. This game was the birthplace of the ‘Manning doesn’t perform in the post season’ narrative although we didn’t know it at the time. Manning didn’t have a bad game and he certainly didn’t lose the game for the Colts, finishing 19-42 for 227 yards and a rare rushing touchdown, but he finished with a pedestrian passer rating of 62.3 significantly lower that his regular season rating of 90.7.

Manning went 4-16 for 42 yards in the fourth quarter with one rushing touchdown. These are hardy stellar numbers but using Pro-Football Reference’s model, Indianapolis’s win percentage was at 14.7% the first time Manning attempted a pass in the fourth and Indy were already down by seven at that stage. He accounted for the Colts’ sole score in the final quarter and was obviously not involved in his team’s failure to recover the onside kick. 

In terms of WPA Manning finished the game with a score of 0.09, which was lower than his regular season average of 0.27. To that end, there could be some validity in assigning Manning a degree of blame for the Colts loss.

Summary: Although not a great game for Peyton, his slightly subpar performance was not the reason the Colts lost this game.

AFC Wild Card Round, Saturday December 30^th, 2000

Spread: Colts -1.5

Result: Dolphins 23, Colts 17 (OT)

The Colts came into this game as slight favorites despite the fact they were the 6^th seed. The game was sealed in overtime as Lamar Smith went over for a touchdown after Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had missed a 49-yard field goal. Manning went 17-32 for 194 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He finished with a rating of 82.0 which was just below his season average of 94.7.

As the game went to overtime it’s probably more pertinent to look at Manning’s performance there as opposed to the fourth quarter, however, I will point out that in that fourth quarter Manning led a drive from the Colts 23 yard line that ended with a field goal and a seven point lead for the Colts with 5:01 remaining on the clock. At that stage the Dolphins had a 3.5% chance of winning the game.

In overtime Manning went 3-4 for 47 yards. Looking at the box score now, perhaps the biggest mistake the Colts made was not going for it on 4^th and 1 at Miami’s 31, but as their kicker had made a similar kick in the fourth, it’s hard to fault them too much.

Manning’s WPA was 0.20 after a regular season average of 0.18 so in terms of expectations, Manning did just as much as we would have expected for the Colts to win the game.

Summary: This is a tough one to analyze. On one side, you could definitely make the case to absolve Manning of most of the responsibility for this loss. He had a solid game and he certainly wasn’t the sole reason for the Colts loss. It comes down to how much stock you put into intangibles like ‘desire’, ‘heart’ and dare I say it, ‘clutchness’. There are some who believe that because Manning didn’t drive his team the length of the field in overtime and score a game-winning touchdown, he lost the game for the Colts. These are usually the same people who firmly believe Tim Tebow would have won this game, just because you know, he really, really, really wanted to win. Miami manufacturing a drive when they needed it and the Colts kicker missing a field goal are probably more relevant factors here when attributing blame or praise than Manning’s ability, or lack thereof, to win a playoff game.

AFC Wild Card Round, Saturday January 4^th, 2003

Spread: Jets -6

Result: Jets 41, Colts 0 

Avert gaze if you’re a Manning fan, this one’s not pretty. If the 2000 loss against the Dolphins was tough to analyze, this one is the polar opposite. The entire Colts team were awful and although a porous offensive line and six drops certainly didn’t help, Manning had a poor day by any standard. His passer rating was 31.2 down from another solid regular season figure of 88.8. He went 14-31 for 137 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions and an atrocious 4.42 yards per attempt.

There’s obviously not much analysis needed for the fourth quarter here. For continuity’s sake I will tell you that when the Colts began the quarter, the Jets had a 100% win percentage. This game was lost/won, depending on your perspective, long before the fourth. Manning’s WPA after this game was -0.04 after a regular season figure of 0.07.

Summary: Manning was terrible in this game and all the relevant stats show this. The game started awfully for the Colts and got progressively worse. This game hurt’s Manning’s post-season reputation but he doesn’t shoulder the blame alone.

AFC Championship Game, Saturday January 18^th, 2004

Spread: Patriots -3.5

Result: Patriots 24, Colts 14 

After finally securing his first post season win and following it up with another victory against the Chiefs in Kansas City, Manning went into Foxboro hoping to make his first Super Bowl. This was Manning’s biggest playoff game of his career and, well, he was pretty terrible. He went 23-47 for 237 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. His passer rating was 35.5 after post-season highs of 158.3 and 138.7 in the previous two games and a regular season figure of 99.0.

Manning’s WPA after this game was -0.42 after a regular season average of 0.20. If you’re looking to make a case against Manning’s post-season record this is probably the logical place to start. Although Russell Wilson has just proved otherwise, throwing four interceptions in a championship game is usually a way to guarantee a loss.

The game wasn’t lost in the fourth quarter with the Colts already down by 14 and the Patriots looking at a 98.6% chance of winning but Manning did throw an interception as the Colts went for it on fourth down at the Patriots 30 yard line. They managed to get the ball back and Manning got his first touchdown of the day with 2:30 left in the quarter but a four and out followed by another failed opportunity later in the quarter sealed the victory for New England. The win percentages were small but Manning did have the ball in his hands a lot during the fourth quarter.

Summary: This was a game ruled by great defense from both teams. Brady didn’t play particularly well, finishing with a passer rating of 76.1, but it was Manning who threw the crippling interceptions and failed to convert on a couple of crucial fourth downs in the closing minutes. It was Manning’s worst post season loss and even though he had been great up until this game, people looked at last year’s loss against the Jets coupled with this failure in New England and the Manning post season choker narrative was starting to gather momentum.

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 16^th, 2005

Spread: Patriots -1.0

Result: Patriots 20, Colts 3 

Manning was coming off his MVP campaign and a wild card win against Denver. The Patriots were just one point favorite’s but they ended up winning the game with relative ease. This loss signalled the beginning of the Foxboro curse storylines for Manning as he dropped to 0-7 in New England.

Manning finished the game with a passer rating of 69.3 after a career high figure of 121.1 in the regular season. He was the best quarterback in football coming into this game but he couldn’t live up to those expectations on a snowy day in New England. His WPA after this game was -0.06 after a league high 0.44 during the regular season.

The Patriots just dominated this game, holding the ball for 37:43 compared to just 22:17 for the Colts. Manning went for 27-42 for 238 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. He wasn’t terrible in this game but he also didn’t do much to help his team win as indicated by the minus WPA mark. Similar to the previous year, Brady didn’t light up the box score but he accounted for both of New England’s touchdowns. Although the game was already over, Manning was intercepted on the last play of the game and depending on your overall opinion of Manning, this is either a perfect way to sum up his performance in the playoffs or a meaningless play at the end of already decided game.

Summary: Manning was average, Brady was slightly above average and defense and the weather conditions were the ultimate winners in this game. Another hit to Manning’s playoff record but he had at least recorded consecutive post-season victories at this stage.

AFC Wild Card Round, Sunday January 15^th, 2006

Spread: Colts -8.5

Result: Steelers 21, Colts 18 

Despite coming in as favorites, the Colts were dominated by the Steelers for the first 55 minutes of this game. Manning went 22-38 for 290 yards with one touchdown and finished with a solid passer rating of 90.9, slightly lower than his regular season average of 104.1.

Manning’s WPA was 0.19 in this game after a regular season average of 0.24 and as signalled by his passer rating, Manning had a good all round game. The problem here, as I alluded to back in the intro, is the expectations of people. Manning was a two time MVP at this stage and came into this game with his team as 8.5 point favorites. Get ready, all caps are coming, PEYTON MANNING SHOULD HAVE WILLED HIS TEAM TO VICTORY.

The Colts began the fourth quarter trailing by 21-3 and with a 1.8% of winning the game. Through a crazy few series’ of plays, they had a shot at going to overtime but their kicker missed a 46-yard field goal. One of these events was a crucial sack that Manning took on fourth down but it didn’t end up deciding the outcome of the game.

Summary: For a certain section of the sports media, a loss is a simply defined negative mark on a player’s resume regardless of how it transpired. In case you hadn’t guessed by the 2000+ words already, I do not subscribe to this way of thinking. Manning had a decent game and his team had a chance to bring the game to overtime but because of events outside of his control he takes another loss in the playoffs. The lack of offence up until the crazy fourth quarter cannot be discounted but overall this was a strange, unpredictable game that could have gone either way at the end.

2007. He won the Super Bowl, Hooray, no analysis needed!

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 13^th, 2008

Spread: Colts -11

Result: Chargers 28, Colts 24 

Despite losing both Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson to injury during the game, the Chargers managed to defeat the heavily favored Colts in Indianapolis. Manning finished with gaudy box score numbers of 33-48 for 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. His passer rating after this game was 97.7 and his QBR was 77.4 with regular season numbers of 98.0 and 78.4 respectively. His WPA was 0.18 with a corresponding average of 0.25 in the regular season.

This is probably the type of game that splits the ‘eye test’ guys from the ‘stat’ guys. Manning’s box score numbers are strong but he also threw a pair of crippling interceptions. His first one came at the end of the first half with the Colts on the Chargers 35 yard line and in a position to score with the second one half way through the third quarter.

One of the most frustrating parts about this whole Manning discussion is the focus on his negative plays without factoring in all the positive ones. He made a lot of great plays in this game to help his team attempt to win the game and was the main reason they had a shot at winning.

Summary: To my mind, if you want to criticize Manning here I think you can build a case around his failing to respond after the Chargers went up by four with 4:54 left in the game. They had the ball on the San Diego seven-yard line at one stage and had a win probability as high as 71% but they failed to score. Manning played pretty great overall but he just couldn’t find that final winning play.  

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 3^rd, 2009

Spread: Colts -11

Result: Chargers 28, Colts 24 

Another regular season MVP trophy, another playoff loss to the Chargers. Darren Sproles torched the Colts for 328 all-purpose yards and Manning added another ‘one and done’ to his post-season record. He finished the game with a passer rating of 90.4 after posting a regular season average of 95.0. His QBR for the Chargers game was 75.4, just a touch under his regular season average of 79.3.

Manning threw for 310 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. It’s fair to say he had a better game than his opposite number, Philip Rivers, who threw for 216 yards with one interception. Manning didn’t even touch the ball in overtime as Sproles and Rivers led a Chargers drive from the Colts 30 yard line for a touchdown. His WPA was 0.20 after a regular season average of 0.31.

Summary: Manning did have the ball in the fourth quarter while the Colts were up by three and with a win percentage as high as 88.3%. They failed to convert that promising drive into points but this was more to do with a costly holding penalty and a faltering run game than anything Manning did. He was not at fault for this loss but a three time MVP losing in the first round of the playoffs for the sixth time fills a lot more column inches than an untimely holding penalty for an offensive lineman.

Super Bowl XLIV, Sunday February 7th, 2010

Spread: Colts -4.5

Result: Saints 31, Colts 17 

The ESPN recap of Super Bowl 44 put this Saints victory down to the intangible and debatable quality of ‘heart’. For someone to use something so unquantifiable as ‘heart’ as a way to describe victory when we have any number of statistics at our fingertips is part of the reason why this whole narrative around Manning even exists. I don’t have a metric or scale, or anything in fact, to measure ‘heart’ so let’s take a look at the game statistics instead.

Manning went 31-45 for 333 yards with a touchdown and an interception for a passer rating of 88.5 and a QBR of 64.0. His regular season numbers were 99.9 and 82.8 respectively (It is worth noting that when taking his three playoff games together, his post season passer rating and QBR figures are almost identical to his regular season numbers).

His WPA was 0.29 which is high but again, a drop from his regular season average of 0.38.  The game will be remembered for the Saints surprise onside kick to start the second half but for Manning, his fourth quarter interception is how most people frame his contribution to the game. It killed off any opportunity the Colts had to launch an already unlikely comeback (the Saints win % when Manning threw the pick was at 89.6%).

Summary: Brees outplayed Manning in the biggest game of the year and Manning threw the game-ending pick. In hindsight, this game probably sounded the death knell for Manning and his post-season reputation. Sure, he could have changed it for the better with more wins in his later years but coming off the back of yet another MVP title and going into the game with his team 4.5 point favorites, Manning just had to win to keep the naysayers quiet. Throwing an interception in the fourth quarter made sure they were even louder.

AFC Wild Card Round, Saturday January 8th, 2011

Spread: Colts -2

Result: Jets 17, Colts 16 

Manning went 18-26 for 225 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. His passer rating of 108.7 was actually higher than his regular season average of 91.9 as was his QBR. This would seem to indicate that Manning had a slightly above average game and gave the Colts a decent shot at victory. His WPA of 0.24 confirms this as it was also higher than his regular season average of 0.19.

For the Manning bashers this loss is made even more egregious as it came against a certain Mark Sanchez. Sanchez didn’t exactly light up the stat sheet however as he went 18-31 for 189 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. It was mainly the Jets defense that defeated Peyton but who cares right? ‘PEYTON MANNING LOST TO MARK SANCHEZ, MARK FREAKING SANCHEZ, IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!”

Manning managed two fourth quarter drives to keep the Colts in the game and put them ahead only to see Antonio Cromartie return a kick off for 47 yards to set up the game winning field goal.

Summary: By the time Vinatieri made the 50-yard field goal for the Colts, they had a 87.5 win % percentage. Some people criticized the Colts and Manning for their time management and obviously just Manning himself for his failure to complete a game sealing pass on 3^rd and 6 with 1:02 remaining but in reality, no one person lost this game. If you really want to assign blame and give credit for one specific play then it would have to be Antonio Cromartie for his 47 yard kickoff return and the Colts special teams for their failure to make a tackle, but like most games, this game was decided by a number of small plays at certain moments throughout the game.

AFC Divisional Round, Saturday January 12th, 2013

Spread: Broncos -9

Result: Ravens 38, Broncos 35

The ‘Peyton Manning collapses in the big moments’ narrative is rivaled only by its younger brother, the ‘Peyton Manning can’t perform in cold weather’ narrative, for entrance into the Manning hot take hall of fame. The cold weather question, or it being presented as an inarguable truth, can easily be debunked by taking a look at Manning’s splits separated by weather temperatures. There is no pattern of him delivering sup par performances when the weather is colder, but that still doesn’t stop people watching one play and drawing a simplistic, all-inclusive opinion.

That one play is of course Manning’s interception at the end of the first quarter of overtime. His pass was picked off by Corey Graham and immediately dropped the Broncos win percentage from 74.1% to 9%. It was a crippling mistake no doubt but it also doesn’t negate the positive contributions Manning made to the Broncos chances of advancing to the AFC title game. Manning went 28-43 for 290 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He had a passer rating of 88.3 and a total QBR of 56.4. These were noticeably down from his season long averages of 105.8 and 82.4 respectively but his WPA of 0.29 was actually higher than his regular season average of 0.24.

The WPA stat is crucial here as it provides a figure for what most rational people who watched the game already knew, Manning did not have a perfect game but he most certainly helped his team far more than he hindered them. The Broncos had a 100% win percentage when Britton Colquitt punted the ball back to the Ravens with 1:15 left in the fourth. Earlier in the fourth, Manning led a drive from the Broncos 12-yard line that ended with him throwing a 17-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas. This drive was forgotten by the people who routinely criticize Manning’s playoff performances about as quickly as it took the Broncos defense to give up the game-tying touchdown; somewhere in the region of 20-30 seconds.

Summary: There is no doubt that Manning’s interception in overtime was pretty crucial in deciding who won this game. It was poor execution on top of already poor decision-making. The point is, and the point of all of this is, that despite what some people would have you believe, the outcomes of games are not decided by one bad decision. Manning made a mistake in a crucial moment but he also made many good decisions throughout the game that put the Broncos in a good position to win.

Super Bowl XLVIII, Sunday February 2nd, 2014

Spread: Broncos -9

Result: Ravens 38, Broncos 35

If the loss against the Ravens was defined by a team and a quarterback having a pretty decent day but ultimately making one or two crucial mistakes, then this game came down to a team and a quarterback playing terribly from the first minute to the last.

For his part, Manning went 34-49 for 280 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions for a rating of 73.5 and a QBR of 24.4. These are obviously considerably lower than his season averages where he posted figures of 115.1 and 82.9 respectively. His WPA was -0.19 after a regular season average of 0.36, further emphasizing his drop off in performance. 

Summary: There are no excuses for Manning in this game as he played poorly and the Broncos lost. It’s important to point out however, that the game wasn’t won or lost by Peyton Manning’s inability to perform in the big moments. This was a team in the Seahawks that thoroughly out played and out muscled the Broncos from start to finish. Manning was terrible, but not because he faltered under the bright lights, it was because the Seahawks were just too good for him. 

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 11th, 2015

Spread: Broncos -7

Result: Colts 24, Broncos 13

Although the Broncos were seven point favorites going into this game, there had been enough subpar performances from Manning in the final weeks of the regular season that his poor showing here wasn’t too much of a surprise. He went 26-46 for 211 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions. His QBR of 27.9 and his passer rating of 75.5 were substantially lower than his regular season averages of 77.2 and 101.5 respectively.

Manning started the game strongly, connecting with Demaryius Thomas on a one yard touchdown pass but that was to prove to be a rare highlight for a Broncos offense that faltered on numerous occasions throughout the day. Manning’s WPA after the game was -0.31 after a regular season average of 0.25.

Summary: Just like the previous year’s loss against the Seahawks, the analysis needed here is minimal. This ranks as one of Manning’s most insipid playoff performances and outside of the opening drive mentioned above, he repeatedly failed to get the Broncos offense moving. There were even some failures in the fourth quarter for all the Manning critics to salivate over. 

So there they are. Manning’s 13 post-season losses in all their glory. One obvious factor that gets lost in the discussion about his record is just the sheer amount of games and how we view them. To put yourself in the position to lose 13 playoff games is something to be applauded and factored in when discussing what those losses actually represent. And yet for some reason this fact gets forgotten about and people focus squarely on the outcome as opposed to the process.

When we describe players as 'clutch' or not, all we are doing is engaging in some two bit cod psychology. We have no idea how Peyton Manning feels as he gets ready to snap the ball with under two minutes left in a particularly tight game. What we can say, and with some certainty, is that there is no pattern of him repeatedly failing in the important moments of big games. 

Wild card weekend picks

As a younger, more energetic and less cynical man I would often look forward to the possible excitement Dec 31st could bring. It’s usually branded as the biggest party of the year and a chance to celebrate with hundreds of like minded people at a club or house party. In a way it should be a very straightforward night as it’s purpose is clearly defined from the outset. You go out to count down the clock at 11.59pm and shout, hug, kiss or solemnly shake hands with people around you. A few more drinks, maybe some dancing if the drink count goes up even further and you’re done. Make your way home and wait for a New Years Day hangover.

But as anybody over the age of 25 knows, it’s not that simple. New Years Eve is never as much fun as it seems on the TV. The pictures of people celebrating in Sydney, Beijing or some other time zone ahead of you never seem to equate to your experience of queuing for drinks, waiting in line for an over priced club or trying and failing to get a taxi home. Sure, there are some bright spots in there, but the majority of my NYE’s have been giant let downs and you slowly learn to accept that a party labelled as the ‘biggest of the year’ will almost inevitably fail to live up to the hype.

This dawning realisation took me around 8-10 years and was coupled with an ever increasing age and a slow decline in my hangover fighting powers. My feelings towards this wild card weekend have followed a similar trajectory but in a far shorter period of time. Like any good DFSdegenerate I’ve played my fair share of Mon-Thurs NFL games and I know the difficulty of taking down tournaments with a huge amount of overlap, however, when I took my first look at the player pool for this weekend I still thought, ‘Great, I’ll just research the hell out of these games, pick the best possible line-up and win all the monies.’ Case closed. Dust off hands, close laptop – scene.

I don’t know where this naivety sprung from but just like my feelings towards New Years Eve, my appetite for these four games from a DFSperspective has dwindled. Everything and nothing is in play. You couldn’t possibly roster Ryan Lindley this weekend but after making a statement like that, you almost have to consider him. Jonathan Stewart and Jeremy Hill’s price more accurately reflect workloads they might not see this weekend, usually a big stay away for me, but there’s no way you’re ruling them out, DeMarco Murray is the clear No.1 RB but he’s up against the best run D left in the post season so is he a must play in cash games or not? On and on it goes.

What seemed so easy and exciting earlier in the week has turned into a struggle where I’m questioning myself at every turn. Four games provide the illusion of being able to cover all the bases and hedge all your bets. You somehow think if you enter say, 20 line-ups into the $2 GPP on DK that you’ll cover every possible outcome until you realize a monster Philly Brown game or Jed Collins vulturing two TD’s will probably swing most of the big tournaments this weekend. It might not be those two but some low owned guy will end up being the key to securing a high finish and if you’re not on them, come Sunday evening you’re going to be staring at the most depressing sight in all of DFS

In an effort to avoid this, let’s take a look at my GPP team for this weekend that combines some obvious selections with some under the radar plays.

Quarterback

Joe Flacco – $6,700

It’s hard to use the word contrarian when it comes to a four game slate so Flacco isn’t going to be hugely under owned but he might be a somewhat under the radar pick. Here’s a strange stat for you, in Flacco’s last six games he has scored either 23 or 13 DK points in 5 of the last 6 games. In the other one he managed 25. A small sample size of course but when we talk about floors and ceilings I think that’s pretty accurate for Flacco. Fittingly, in his last two games against the Steelers, he had 14 and 22. If he has a monster game on Saturday the Ravens QB could net you around the 25 point mark which would be great considering his price point. Alternatively he could scupper your chances of a nice pay day if he puts up a 13 point dud, but with only four games that’s the same for almost every roster spot. At this point in the season it seems reasonable to predict that the Steelers will attack the Ravens secondary and Baltimore will be forced to follow suit. Historically, the Pittsburgh Baltimore rivalry is defined by low scoring slug fests but this one could turn into a shoot out. Roethlisberger will almost certainly be higher owned and if the game stays tight, both QB’s could end up with similar point totals. As we all know, the lower owned play is the +EV position in this scenario.

Running Backs

Jeremy Hill – $6,200

Hill is shaping up to be the most popular play at the RB position this week. He’s not that expensive, people haven’t been burned by him yet, he’s got a good matchup against the Colts and most importantly of all, the Bengals will almost certainly look to the running game in an effort to avoid the Andy-Dalton-with-no-AJ-Green disaster waiting to happen. As I touched on in the intro however, Giovanni Bernard was more heavily involved last week and he’s the RB they look for in the passing game, crucial on a fullPPR site like DK. Since Hill’s monster game in week 15 against Cleveland his DK points have decreased every week with Bernard even out scoring him last week against Pittsburgh. With that being said, Bernard is only $600 cheaper and Hill is still out snapping him which makes Hill the better play in a backfield I definitely want exposure to this weekend.

Daniel Herron – $4,700

I haven’t rostered Herron all year and a quick glance at his game log tells me why, he hasn’t topped 16.6 DK points all year and he hasn’t been over 10 in his last 3. But as we know, game logs only tell a portion of the story and the last two games against the Cowboys and Titans can almost be thrown out as the Colts were either getting blown out or resting their starters for the playoffs. Which brings us to the idea behind selecting Herron. He was taken out of the game against Tennessee which points to him being the clear no.1 in the Colts backfield. The Bengals are weak against the run (ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA) and Herron should hopefully see a season high in touches and snaps as the Colts coaching staff finally phase Trent Richardson out. Another crucial factor in this selection is my decision to fade DeMarco Murray and pay up for WR instead. Herron looks like a great mid priced option this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson – $8,800

For a variety of reasons, I see the Steelers-Ravens and Cowboys-Lions games being decided through the air. (This next part will shock you) Therefore I shall be rostering as many wide receivers from those games as possible, starting with Megatron. I think Brown will be the highest owned WR and for good reason as he’ll probably put on a show against the Ravens secondary but with Johnson at just $100 cheaper and with me actively fading Big Ben I think he’s a great play here. I can see him being relatively under owned considering the small amount of games and here comes the best part, he’ll be covered by 90th ranked (per PFF) corner on the season, Brandon Carr. That’s out of 108 qualifying corners. That’s not good. Except for people who roster Johnson this week. The weird part about this is that up until about week 4 Megatron was still considered the top WR in the game. Before the season it was even more unanimous, I’d wager a decent amount of money that he was the first WR off the board in about 90% of leagues. That guy hasn’t gone away. He hasn’t had his best year but I can see him having his best game of the year this Sunday.

Dez Bryant – $8,500

This is looking like a Dez Bryant game to me. He’s been on fire over the last…….well he’s basically been on fire all year actually. Romo is playing like a possible MVP candidate and most importantly, Detroit has a really, really good run defense and a pretty average secondary. I can see Dallas attempting to establish the run with Murray like they’ve done all season but I think they will eventually have to air it out and let Dez go to work. There isn’t too much more to say here, Bryant has a legitimate shot of being the highest scoring fantasy player of the weekend. I’m playing him.

Torrey Smith – $5,400

Obviously if I’m going with Flacco, I’m putting him with a wide receiver and unless you want to go contrarian on top of contrarian I’m going Torrey over Steve Sr. If you take out the two injury plagued weeks of week 14 and 15 Smith has actually been putting up pretty decent numbers for a few weeks now. Taking out those two games Smith has had 16.3, 18.5, 14.8, 24.5, 22.9 and 18.3 DK points over the past 8 weeks. That’s a nice level of consistency. Like Flacco he should draw a low level of ownership and I think he has a good shot at making the 4x salary we’re looking for in a tournament.

Tight End

Eric Ebron – $3,000

This is my one legitimately contrarian pick, or my ‘Jed Collins’ if you will. Mark my words, some $3,000 player will end up being a ‘must own’ if you want to win a decent size GPP and I’m putting my money on Ebron. He’s only scored double digit DK point on one occasion all year so I don’t think we need to worry about him having high ownership. This pick is based on two things. 1. Dallas have been bad against tight end position all season and 2. I don’t like any TE’s enough this week to pay up and I think Ebron is a decent punt. Olsen will be highly owned but he is an easy fade for me and there’s no one else I like. The savings allow me to roster 2 stud WR’s and a bell cow RB in Hill. To make you feel slightly better about someone who averages 4.3 DK points after a full season, Ebron played 61% of the snaps in week 17 and saw 6 targets.

Flex

Martavis Bryant – $4,100

Even though I’m fading the majority of the Steelers skill players I still want some exposure to their offence and as we all know, Bryant is that perfectGPP player. We know what we’re going to get with this guy, he’ll be quiet for the majority of the game and then hopefully he’ll catch a few deep passes with maybe even a touchdown or two.

Defense

Bengals – $1,900

I just can’t get past this price. As I’ve said all year long, defense is a crapshoot. The Benglas are probably the lowest ranked D this week but they shouldn’t be $900 cheaper than the next ranked team, the Steelers. Luck is prone to a turnover or two and they could always end up being pick sixes. There’s no predicting this stuff so I’d rather take the savings and spend up somewhere else. If I’m going to spend up, I’d actually go all the way up to the Panthers, which I’ll probably do for cash games.

This is the team I’ll be riding, and probably dying with, this weekend. Good luck to everyone playing this tricky short slate.

Week 17 - #nobodyknowsanything

First, let’s start with a list.

1. Waiting in line at a store with two registers open and 8 closed.

2. Losing the remote control.

3. Calling a customer care department for any reason.

4. Attempting to speak to a human from a customer care department.

5. Skip Bayless.

6. Having no milk in the morning.

7. Internet trolls.

8. The sound of a vacuum cleaner.

9. People listening to obnoxiously loud music on public transport.

10. Passwords not working on websites.

11. Having to have 428 different passwords with different combinations all using upper case, lower case, numbers and at least one of @,£,$,%,&,*, and being told you need to change them every few months.

All of these things are more enjoyable than losing in all my cash games on the last meaningful play of the last game of week 17. Antonio Brown, you are a wonderfully talented player but the level of vitriol I felt for you as you beat the Bengals CB and ran for a touchdown was off the charts.

Granted this was a team with a final points total of 121.46 so on the surface, there isn’t a whole lot to complain about but as you probably noticed, week 17 was a pretty low scoring affair. This team also included Vincent Jackson who conveniently left the field in the first quarter after catching one pass for eleven yards. Having a player on your cash game line-ups leave the game with an injury in the first quarter is somewhere between noise on public transport and Skip Bayless on the annoying list.

Before I get to the point of this post I’d like to indulge in some more self-pity for a moment if that’s ok with you. Cast your mind back to week 16 and the joy of a full weekend of games (tip a forty to the curb for the regular season). Last Monday night football of the year. Broncos Bengals. My spluttering cash game line-up has survived Drew Brees’ selfish attempts to ensure I lose money and is slowly creeping up the scoreboard thanks to DFS GOAT C.J Anderson.

On the final meaningful drive of the game he catches a bunch of passes and rushes for 27 yards. One more catch or another run over 10 yards would have put me into the top 50% but instead Peyton decides to join Brees’ spiteful club of making sure I lose money and he throws an interception. I missed out on cashing a pretty substantial amount of cash games by about one point. I’m not going to go back and check the exact amount as it’s the equivalent of creeping on a facebook page of the guy your ex girlfriend is now dating. Only bad things can come from it. You need to move on.

A quick addendum to this section of self-pity. I had a healthy dose of both Arian Foster and Le’Veon Bell yesterday. Bell in cash and GPP, Foster justGPP. Couple that with Jackson’s injury, the Vikings skill players collective no show (more on that below) and you end up with a teeth gnashing, pillow pounding kind of day. Many mistakes have been made over this 17 week season but none more egregious than investing the amount of money I did in a slate of games that just screamed volatility and unpredictability beforehand. All good bankroll practices were thrown out the window and full on tilt mode was activated for the afternoon games. The results were not pretty.

But we move on, and we move on to another list. Here follows a list of things that makes everybody feel stupid and hammers home the prevailing narrative throughout the entire fantasy football season, #nobodyknowsanything.

Eric Decker scored more points than….everybody.

To counteract the self-pity, get ready for some some smug self-congratulatory behavior. I had Eric Decker on my $400k Gridiron Draft Kings team and he was 0.7% owned. Naturally my team also had Bell and Foster but you knew that already. Granted Decker is a WR for the New York Jets but 0.7% seemed ludicrously low. He basically doubled his highest score of the season against the Dolphins, in Miami, with Geno Smith throwing him the ball. He had more DK points than our all mighty ruler, King Odell Beckham Jr.

Geno Smith scored more points than…..everybody.

Want to know how many line-ups had Geno Smith in the Gridiron contest? 0.0%.

According to PFF Miami has the second best pass rush in football and the Jets have the second worst passing offense so this was a pretty easy one to predict. By the way, Colin Kaepernick put up the third highest amount of points on the week. He was 0.5% owned.

Ryan Lindley threw for two touchdowns and 316 passing yards.

Ryan Lindley love giving away bibles.

And he’s really struggled since being inserted as a starter for the Cardinals. These are things I know about Ryan Lindley. I did not know that he would put up so many passing yards against the 49ers defense. Other things I don’t know: how to rewire a plug and the capital of Chad. Fortunately, the internet can provide answers for these two queries, the internet DID NOT tell me to play Ryan Lindley in fantasy football yesterday.

People saying “he’s just not a good football” player.

See Coby Fleener and Matt Asiata. Simple rule of thumb, if they are playing for an NFL team they are at the very least ‘good football players.’ Coby Fleener had another high scoring fantasy day yesterday and Matt Asiata has scored 10 TD’s this season despite being the two most maligned players throughout the year.

Michael Floyd finally caught a deep ball for a touchdown. And then he did it again.

Ah Michael Floyd. The greatest DFS troll of the season with an honorary mention for both Rueben Randle and Colin Kaepernick. Continuing the trend, Floyd was 0.3% owned and those lucky 72 odd teams got a tasty 38.3 DK points for their ballsy move. Floyd’s previous high? 20 points all the way back in week 1. Floyd was a highly touted low priced guy throughout the early weeks of the season which means he falls into that well known ‘we all thought we knew something, then we all thought we were wrong and felt annoyed by it but it turns out we were kind of right, except that it was too late’ category.

Injured players.

We are aware that players suffer injuries of course, cut cruelly, it’s also something that’s almost impossible to predict. In fact picking a player with an injury concern is a savvy GPP strategy. But nobody can know who will get injured during a game and the sad reality is that a football player getting injured is far more likely than a player in any other sport. It’s a tough way to lose money no doubt but something you have to be aware of. Jackson, Bell and Foster all hurt my teams yesterday, I’m sure there were many more. All the rotogrinders articles and PFF stats will not save you from a pulled hamstring or a torn ACL.

Dez, Tony & Demarco.

I know some people played the Cowboys yesterday but did anybody really expect them to play almost the whole game? And if they did, they surely couldn’t have expected Romo to throw 34 passes and Murray to have 20 rushing attempts in what ended up being a complete blowout.

I didn’t, but maybe I’m just bitter about the fact that my sneaky GPP stack was Luck and Hilton instead of Romo and Dez.

Lamar Millar rushed for 178 yards against the top ranked PFF run defense.

This game made no sense. It’s o/u was 41 by the way. It finished 37-24.

Chris Owusu.

Chris Owusu is a wide receiver for the New York Jets. He had a 23 yard rushing touchdown yesterday. This was the first rushing attempt of his career. Moving on…

A Thielen.

I’m not looking up what the ‘A’ stands for. Yesterday started unspeakably bad for me so about half way through the first set of games I had to take myself away from the TV. I went to get some dog food. It was a relatively drab affair and it calmed my bubbling rage towards the events transpiring on the television screen. I returned to see that the Vikings had finally scored a touchdown. Hooray I thought. Until I saw it was an ‘A Thielen’ catch and not a Charles Johnson one or an Asiata run. I don’t know who ‘A Thielen’ is and I do not care to, I just know that he was not meant to be catching touchdowns yesterday.

The Vikings offense.

The Vikings had been on a nice run leading into their home game against the Bears. That’s the ranked 30th against the pass and 27th against the run Chicago Bears in case you were wondering. The Vikings had put up 30+ points in 3 of their last 4 games (the outlier here was against the Lions) and just last week they scored 35 against the Dolphins in Miami. They scored 13 against the Bears…….sigh.

You keep on being you NFL, you big beautiful enigma, and we’ll keep on trying to work you out.

I could go on but I need to go walk my dog and clear the week 17 mist of confusion from my brain.

Happy bloody New Year.

Success and regret in a post millionaire-maker world

By sgaffney, Last Updated 2 weeks ago

As a young child growing up, one of the hardest things to accept is the idea of something ending. ‘Closure’ is not a phrase a child is very familiar with and so when something comes to an end it usually leads to feelings of sadness and regret. Sadness that something pleasurable has ended and regret that you didn’t enjoy and make the most of opportunities presented to you. Generally these regrets centre around not asking for more presents before Christmas or not staying up late enough during Summer holidays.

As DFS players we too have to deal with closure and weekly daily regrets. The comparison with children works on another level of course as we spend an unhealthy amount of time focusing on something that we know to be fantasy. Children look forward to an event like Christmas from an all-consuming level. For a six-year-old child during December the world will cease to exist after December 25th, and even if it were to continue, there wouldn’t be much point in sticking around.

Which leads us to the post millionaire maker world we now live in. It’s a stark and desolate place, with no hope of winning a million dollars at the weekend. The January blues have come a few weeks early. We are now forced to cut back on luxurious foods and start back up on that exercise regimen as we can no longer blindly and recklessly throw dollar after dollar at a tournament that was the very definition of taking care of the 1% in spite of the 99%.

That’s not a criticism either, it’s not like anyone forced me to chase the millions week after week. Well that’s not true, my greedy alter ego forced me to chase the millions but I’d happily do it all over again and even this weekend if I could. What makes it even worse for me (or better I guess depending on your outlook) is that I had my best result by far finishing 95th overall along with three other teams that finished in paying positions.

This brought me great satisfaction and not only through the obvious source of getting some extra money before Christmas but also because I felt I really bloody earned this one. I had built up a few tickets through basketball qualifiers and I wanted to give it my best shot so I covered every inch of research possible without incurring the daily wrath of my wife. This was, however, not always successful.

I wanted a high finish because it’s hard not to wonder about the futility of it all as you spend countless hours on research, prioritize it over your social life, do everything you feel you can and still finish way out of the money. You need some validation. You need to be able to point to the contests page on Draftkings and say, ‘See, that’s why I do it.’ You also need it if you’re writing a weekly DFS football column and you’ve been having more success at basketball.

So last weekend was a success and it was great to finally have a touch of excitement on a Monday night as I vaulted from somewhere in the 500’s to 95th. Like any good DFS player though, there was that little voice in the back of my head wondering what could have been if it was Martellus Bennett on the end of that garbage time TD and not Alshon Jeffrey or the various other possibilities that would have pushed me even further up the leader board. We are truly never happy unless we finish in first place.

I’ve recently finished in second and joint 3rd in large field GPP’s and much as this brings great joy and delight, I’ve still spent more time dwelling on how close I came to winning or how much more money I would have won, instead of being content with such high finishes. And that’s not even mentioning the fact that If I had entered the same millionaire line-up into the $3.1 main even satellite I would have finished in the top 20 places and secured a ticket worth $1,500 to the world championship this weekend. Ah regrets, I’ve had a few.

Which brings me back to being a child and overcoming the sadness that engulfs you when the Christmas tree comes down and those presents have lost some of their luster. It’s hard to stay positive, especially when you drag yourself out of bed on the first day back at school but you keep going because even though it feels so far away, you know there will be another Christmas. There will be more presents, more stockings, more excited Christmas Eve’s as you ponder on the magic of an overweight man and his reindeers coming down your chimney. More sweets to eat and more toys to play with if you can just be patient. As DFS players though, we don’t need to be so patient because even though we don’t have a million dollars to win this week, there’s still plenty to play for so let’s get to some picks.

Quarterback

Tom Brady – $8,000

I haven’t rostered Brady much this year as he’s consistently fallen just below the top tier QB’s and above the mid range guys. It seems like I’ve always either chosen to pay up or take the bargain pick but I like Brady and his TE (spoiler alert) this week. Brees is another option here but with a classic week 16 mentality, I’m refusing to play him due to previous weeks of disappointment. I just can’t make myself click that big green plus beside his $8,300 price tag. I’m willing to bet if they played these week 16 games 100 times Brady would average out with a higher score but Brees would score maybe the 10 highest scores. I don’t know how we can put this bet into practice but if anyone fancies taking a piece of the action let me know. Dotted around his three 30+ point games Brees has dropped a 13 and a 14 pointer. I think I had exposure to him in both of those weeks. Not doing it this week. You can’t make me. I also expect the Jets to play hard and, not that New England needs an excuse, I think the Pats will end up putting up 40+ points on them with three TD’s for Brady and two for Gronk. Brady hasn’t thrown less than two TD’s since that did-it-really-happen massacre by the Chiefs in Week four and he’s faced a lot stiffer defenses than the porous Jets secondary. Brady might not hit that coveted 4x his salary but he’s almost a guarantee for 3x which I’ll gladly take and move on.

Running Backs

Fred Jackson – $5,500

Another guy I’ve barely rostered this year. Granted Jackson sat out a bunch of games earlier in the season but I will admit to wanting to put my hope in some new guys this week. Jackson is similar to Brady in that he’s been so damn consistent over the last few weeks and now he has a legitimate shot to run up a big score against poor opposition. The Raiders have given up the second most fantasy point to opposing running backs and over the last three weeks Jackson has either had at least 20 rushing attempts or 10 receptions. Meaning that if the Bills get up fast they’re going to look to Jackson to run out the clock and if they go behind, there’s going to be a whole lot of check downs and quick passes to F-Jax. Basically anything that decreases the chances of Kyle Orton screwing everything up for a team that still has an, albeit minuscule, shot at the playoffs.

Tre Mason – $4,600

Tre Mason is my RB antithesis of DeAndre Hopkins. Meaning that I only seem to roster him when he has big games. There has only been one such game I know but still, we’ve had 15 weeks of being burned by players, I’m going to cling on to my 100% record on one player if that’s ok with you. Since his explosion against the Raiders (yayy for Fred Jackson’s opponent this week) Mason has gone up against two stout run defenses in the Cardinals and the Redskins (side note: Washington ranks as the 7th worst run D according to PFF but have also held opposing RB’s to the second fewest fantasy points over the course of nearly a full season, someone needs to explain that one to me) and now he gets a shot at the Giants. His price has dropped by $2,100 on DK over the course of two weeks so I fear the masses might be back on him, plus we have to factor in the seven people that will read this post and the two of them that might actually play Mason because of it. So yeah, he could have a high ownership percentage but that’s worked out pretty well with Mason himself in week 13, Stewart in week 14 and Hill last week so there’s no way he goes for 35 yards on 12 carries with no TD’s right? RIGHT??

Wide Receivers

Marques Colston – $4,600

Yawn. Another guy I haven’t rostered all year. I need new intros to these paragraphs. But it’s true, he’s in the stable of old WR’s I never like to play week to week but his price and usage ever since Brandin Cooks went down are too enticing. Plus you know, the Falcons having a pretty terrible defense is quite nice too. With my active fade on Brees this week and my feeling that Stills will be just that bit too highly owned for his price along with the zero trust I have in Jimmy Graham anymore, Colston was kind of my only choice when it came to wanting to have some exposure to the Saints passing attack. With that being said, if Julio Jones is ruled out again this week I could easily see myself late swapping Harry Douglas into this spot and downgrading at another area.

Vincent Jackson – $5,600

Targets. All of the targets. 17 and 10, that’s the amount of times Josh McCown has thrown the ball to Jackson over the last two games. It’s not an anomaly either, Jackson has been targeted over nine times on ten different occasions this year. I know that’s too (I wanted to use ‘two’ here but it would look like an excruciatingly bad typo) many figures in the last few sentences but suffice to say that Vincent Jackson gets lots of opportunities to score DK points which is what we like, except for you masochists among us. You run along and play Johnny Football again this week. Green Bay should get up early here forcing the Bucs to throw the ball against the Packers pretty poor secondary. I know what you’re saying though, Mike Evans is getting all the red zone targets and he’s not that more expensive so why ‘target’ (boom boom) Jackson? I’ll tell you why. Jackson has actually had more red zone targets than Evans over the course of the year and gets 26.42% of the teams targets in the RZ compared to Evans’ 22.64% Evans had done more with less of course but anytime I can get a talented WR with lots of opportunities to score at a cheap price, I’ll take it.

Torrey Smith – $4,600

Torrey Smith was my ‘picked because I had x amount of salary left over’ selection. Not to say that I don’t like him but generally, if you get picked last for any sporting event it’s an unavoidable blow to your confidence so Torrey, if you’re reading, I’m sorry. Anyway, I love Smith’s price this week and strangely enough he is the third player on this team with a price of $4,600…..I have nothing to add to that, I just felt like pointing it out. He’s been a bit banged up over the last few weeks, like most players, but he looks good to go this weekend and he gets a great matchup against the Texans. They’ve given up the third most fantasy points to opposing WR’s and if Smith is fully healthy, he should easily pay off his salary.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski – $7,000

Gronk’s price is the lowest it’s been since that crazy pricing of week eight when he was $5,900. He scored a ridiculous 44.9 DK points that week. These two facts have no relevance to each other except to illustrate the fact that Gronkowski has about as high an upside as any other player you can roster this week and if you feel you can get him at any type of discount, you should probably do that. You know the Patriots are going to make a few trips to the Jets end zone, you know that Brady will look for Gronk, you know that Gronk will probably get open and you can almost guarantee he will score a TD. You know you should roster Gronk this week.

Flex

C.J Anderson – $6,900

Do you know what the C.J stands for? Cortrelle Javon. I have never heard this name before. Coming from Ireland, we don’t quite have the wide spectrum of names that you get here in America. If Anderson were Irish he would either be ‘Chris John’ or ‘Charlie James’. You could swap them around a bit, but that would be it. Instead we get ‘Cortrelle Javon’. Fantastic. You know what else is fantastic? (smooth transition alert), Anderson’s possibility of putting up a high score this week. His price has come down to a more reasonable level after he put up a bit of a dud against the Chargers, but with Peyton Manning’s arm losing strength by the minute it looks like the Broncos will again lean on Anderson. The Bengals are weak against the run and yadda yadda Pro Football Focus, etc. etc. Football Outsiders, bla bla bla fantasy points given up, you know the drill. The real reason I wanted Anderson or at least somebody from this game? Monday night hammer. I honestly think I would take an overall lower finish from a team that had at least a shot of winning a GPP than a higher place finish from a team that was done by 4 on Sunday. The only caveat being if that team was in first with a score of 300+ points, but as that’s unlikely I’ll take a RB on the final Monday night football of the year who is getting a ton of usage in what should be a competitive game.

Defense

Lions – $3,100

Toss up between the Seahawks and the Lions for me this week. Patriots are also in play of course but like I said above, I can see the Jets putting up a decent performance and anyway, these two top calibre defenses are going up against two QB’s making their first starts of the year, if they aren’t collectively about 99% owned in cash games this week then we’re doing it wrong.

That’s it. Good luck this week and I hope all you Grinders have a profitable Christmas!