Peyton and his post season narrative

Just as night follows day and day follows night, a Peyton Manning post-season loss is swiftly followed by an ‘Is Peyton Manning clutch?’ debate.  Look around you; there is almost certainly one taking place at this very second. Brian from accounting is probably deeming one of the most successful athletes of all time as a ‘choker’ and Skip Bayless is definitely discussing the size and relative strength of Manning’s ‘clutch gene’, which seems like a conversation that should only take place at the doctor’s surgery.

These conversations are almost always rooted in laziness and come from a desire to perpetuate a certain narrative as opposed to calmly assessing the facts. I understand it’s not always possible to factor in every single post season game when jumping to wildly inaccurate conclusions, but that also does not mean we have to stand idly by and watch analyst after analyst blindly trot out the ‘Peyton Manning is a choker’ without first looking at the relevant the evidence.

Let’s get a few things out of the way before we start. Firstly, I am very aware of Manning’s post season record and I am not here to defend it, he has lost 13 post season games and made a number of mistakes during some (this word is crucial) of those games. His post-season record absolutely does not hold up when compared to his regular season record and those 13 losses are the most for any NFL starting quarterback. 

These are all negative statements about Peyton Manning and his ability to win important football games. What they are not, is proof that Manning lacks ability in the ‘clutch’ or justification to make declarative statements such as ‘Peyton Manning collapses under the pressure of the post season.’ And herein lies the problem. In an attempt to fill column inches and pad out podcast minutes people invariably slip into the habit of discussing sport in purely black and white terms.

What if Peyton Manning is in fact a really, really good quarterback who, through a combination of occasional poor play, mistakes from his teammates and a high level of play from the opposing team, lost some important games? What if we didn’t just see things through a strict binary of good/bad and winner/loser? Would that be so bad? Would this approach to analysis lessen the amount of scorching hot takes? Yes, I think it would. So let’s give it a go shall we?

Using Advanced Football Analytics’ WPA (Win Probability Added), explained here, good old fashioned passer rating and less old fashioned QBR (QBR ratings only go back to 2006) let’s take a look at Manning’s 13 losses in the post season with a specific focus on his performance in the fourth quarter. I’ve also added the Vegas line to frame the conversation in terms of the public’s expectation of Manning as I think it is crucial when it comes to they way we analyze his performances. 

One last thing, I considered also using Advanced Football Analytics’ EPA (Expected Points Added) but I decided to focus just on WPA as it ‘simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing’ and ‘it can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch”', as I thought it was more relevant to the discussion.

AFC Divisional Round Sunday January 16^th, 2000

Spread: Colts -5.5

Result: Titan 19 Colts 16

The Colts secured a bye in the regular season finishing with a record of 13-3. In the divisional round they took on a Tennessee Titans team fresh off the ‘music city miracle’ game. This game was the birthplace of the ‘Manning doesn’t perform in the post season’ narrative although we didn’t know it at the time. Manning didn’t have a bad game and he certainly didn’t lose the game for the Colts, finishing 19-42 for 227 yards and a rare rushing touchdown, but he finished with a pedestrian passer rating of 62.3 significantly lower that his regular season rating of 90.7.

Manning went 4-16 for 42 yards in the fourth quarter with one rushing touchdown. These are hardy stellar numbers but using Pro-Football Reference’s model, Indianapolis’s win percentage was at 14.7% the first time Manning attempted a pass in the fourth and Indy were already down by seven at that stage. He accounted for the Colts’ sole score in the final quarter and was obviously not involved in his team’s failure to recover the onside kick. 

In terms of WPA Manning finished the game with a score of 0.09, which was lower than his regular season average of 0.27. To that end, there could be some validity in assigning Manning a degree of blame for the Colts loss.

Summary: Although not a great game for Peyton, his slightly subpar performance was not the reason the Colts lost this game.

AFC Wild Card Round, Saturday December 30^th, 2000

Spread: Colts -1.5

Result: Dolphins 23, Colts 17 (OT)

The Colts came into this game as slight favorites despite the fact they were the 6^th seed. The game was sealed in overtime as Lamar Smith went over for a touchdown after Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had missed a 49-yard field goal. Manning went 17-32 for 194 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He finished with a rating of 82.0 which was just below his season average of 94.7.

As the game went to overtime it’s probably more pertinent to look at Manning’s performance there as opposed to the fourth quarter, however, I will point out that in that fourth quarter Manning led a drive from the Colts 23 yard line that ended with a field goal and a seven point lead for the Colts with 5:01 remaining on the clock. At that stage the Dolphins had a 3.5% chance of winning the game.

In overtime Manning went 3-4 for 47 yards. Looking at the box score now, perhaps the biggest mistake the Colts made was not going for it on 4^th and 1 at Miami’s 31, but as their kicker had made a similar kick in the fourth, it’s hard to fault them too much.

Manning’s WPA was 0.20 after a regular season average of 0.18 so in terms of expectations, Manning did just as much as we would have expected for the Colts to win the game.

Summary: This is a tough one to analyze. On one side, you could definitely make the case to absolve Manning of most of the responsibility for this loss. He had a solid game and he certainly wasn’t the sole reason for the Colts loss. It comes down to how much stock you put into intangibles like ‘desire’, ‘heart’ and dare I say it, ‘clutchness’. There are some who believe that because Manning didn’t drive his team the length of the field in overtime and score a game-winning touchdown, he lost the game for the Colts. These are usually the same people who firmly believe Tim Tebow would have won this game, just because you know, he really, really, really wanted to win. Miami manufacturing a drive when they needed it and the Colts kicker missing a field goal are probably more relevant factors here when attributing blame or praise than Manning’s ability, or lack thereof, to win a playoff game.

AFC Wild Card Round, Saturday January 4^th, 2003

Spread: Jets -6

Result: Jets 41, Colts 0 

Avert gaze if you’re a Manning fan, this one’s not pretty. If the 2000 loss against the Dolphins was tough to analyze, this one is the polar opposite. The entire Colts team were awful and although a porous offensive line and six drops certainly didn’t help, Manning had a poor day by any standard. His passer rating was 31.2 down from another solid regular season figure of 88.8. He went 14-31 for 137 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions and an atrocious 4.42 yards per attempt.

There’s obviously not much analysis needed for the fourth quarter here. For continuity’s sake I will tell you that when the Colts began the quarter, the Jets had a 100% win percentage. This game was lost/won, depending on your perspective, long before the fourth. Manning’s WPA after this game was -0.04 after a regular season figure of 0.07.

Summary: Manning was terrible in this game and all the relevant stats show this. The game started awfully for the Colts and got progressively worse. This game hurt’s Manning’s post-season reputation but he doesn’t shoulder the blame alone.

AFC Championship Game, Saturday January 18^th, 2004

Spread: Patriots -3.5

Result: Patriots 24, Colts 14 

After finally securing his first post season win and following it up with another victory against the Chiefs in Kansas City, Manning went into Foxboro hoping to make his first Super Bowl. This was Manning’s biggest playoff game of his career and, well, he was pretty terrible. He went 23-47 for 237 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. His passer rating was 35.5 after post-season highs of 158.3 and 138.7 in the previous two games and a regular season figure of 99.0.

Manning’s WPA after this game was -0.42 after a regular season average of 0.20. If you’re looking to make a case against Manning’s post-season record this is probably the logical place to start. Although Russell Wilson has just proved otherwise, throwing four interceptions in a championship game is usually a way to guarantee a loss.

The game wasn’t lost in the fourth quarter with the Colts already down by 14 and the Patriots looking at a 98.6% chance of winning but Manning did throw an interception as the Colts went for it on fourth down at the Patriots 30 yard line. They managed to get the ball back and Manning got his first touchdown of the day with 2:30 left in the quarter but a four and out followed by another failed opportunity later in the quarter sealed the victory for New England. The win percentages were small but Manning did have the ball in his hands a lot during the fourth quarter.

Summary: This was a game ruled by great defense from both teams. Brady didn’t play particularly well, finishing with a passer rating of 76.1, but it was Manning who threw the crippling interceptions and failed to convert on a couple of crucial fourth downs in the closing minutes. It was Manning’s worst post season loss and even though he had been great up until this game, people looked at last year’s loss against the Jets coupled with this failure in New England and the Manning post season choker narrative was starting to gather momentum.

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 16^th, 2005

Spread: Patriots -1.0

Result: Patriots 20, Colts 3 

Manning was coming off his MVP campaign and a wild card win against Denver. The Patriots were just one point favorite’s but they ended up winning the game with relative ease. This loss signalled the beginning of the Foxboro curse storylines for Manning as he dropped to 0-7 in New England.

Manning finished the game with a passer rating of 69.3 after a career high figure of 121.1 in the regular season. He was the best quarterback in football coming into this game but he couldn’t live up to those expectations on a snowy day in New England. His WPA after this game was -0.06 after a league high 0.44 during the regular season.

The Patriots just dominated this game, holding the ball for 37:43 compared to just 22:17 for the Colts. Manning went for 27-42 for 238 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. He wasn’t terrible in this game but he also didn’t do much to help his team win as indicated by the minus WPA mark. Similar to the previous year, Brady didn’t light up the box score but he accounted for both of New England’s touchdowns. Although the game was already over, Manning was intercepted on the last play of the game and depending on your overall opinion of Manning, this is either a perfect way to sum up his performance in the playoffs or a meaningless play at the end of already decided game.

Summary: Manning was average, Brady was slightly above average and defense and the weather conditions were the ultimate winners in this game. Another hit to Manning’s playoff record but he had at least recorded consecutive post-season victories at this stage.

AFC Wild Card Round, Sunday January 15^th, 2006

Spread: Colts -8.5

Result: Steelers 21, Colts 18 

Despite coming in as favorites, the Colts were dominated by the Steelers for the first 55 minutes of this game. Manning went 22-38 for 290 yards with one touchdown and finished with a solid passer rating of 90.9, slightly lower than his regular season average of 104.1.

Manning’s WPA was 0.19 in this game after a regular season average of 0.24 and as signalled by his passer rating, Manning had a good all round game. The problem here, as I alluded to back in the intro, is the expectations of people. Manning was a two time MVP at this stage and came into this game with his team as 8.5 point favorites. Get ready, all caps are coming, PEYTON MANNING SHOULD HAVE WILLED HIS TEAM TO VICTORY.

The Colts began the fourth quarter trailing by 21-3 and with a 1.8% of winning the game. Through a crazy few series’ of plays, they had a shot at going to overtime but their kicker missed a 46-yard field goal. One of these events was a crucial sack that Manning took on fourth down but it didn’t end up deciding the outcome of the game.

Summary: For a certain section of the sports media, a loss is a simply defined negative mark on a player’s resume regardless of how it transpired. In case you hadn’t guessed by the 2000+ words already, I do not subscribe to this way of thinking. Manning had a decent game and his team had a chance to bring the game to overtime but because of events outside of his control he takes another loss in the playoffs. The lack of offence up until the crazy fourth quarter cannot be discounted but overall this was a strange, unpredictable game that could have gone either way at the end.

2007. He won the Super Bowl, Hooray, no analysis needed!

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 13^th, 2008

Spread: Colts -11

Result: Chargers 28, Colts 24 

Despite losing both Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson to injury during the game, the Chargers managed to defeat the heavily favored Colts in Indianapolis. Manning finished with gaudy box score numbers of 33-48 for 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. His passer rating after this game was 97.7 and his QBR was 77.4 with regular season numbers of 98.0 and 78.4 respectively. His WPA was 0.18 with a corresponding average of 0.25 in the regular season.

This is probably the type of game that splits the ‘eye test’ guys from the ‘stat’ guys. Manning’s box score numbers are strong but he also threw a pair of crippling interceptions. His first one came at the end of the first half with the Colts on the Chargers 35 yard line and in a position to score with the second one half way through the third quarter.

One of the most frustrating parts about this whole Manning discussion is the focus on his negative plays without factoring in all the positive ones. He made a lot of great plays in this game to help his team attempt to win the game and was the main reason they had a shot at winning.

Summary: To my mind, if you want to criticize Manning here I think you can build a case around his failing to respond after the Chargers went up by four with 4:54 left in the game. They had the ball on the San Diego seven-yard line at one stage and had a win probability as high as 71% but they failed to score. Manning played pretty great overall but he just couldn’t find that final winning play.  

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 3^rd, 2009

Spread: Colts -11

Result: Chargers 28, Colts 24 

Another regular season MVP trophy, another playoff loss to the Chargers. Darren Sproles torched the Colts for 328 all-purpose yards and Manning added another ‘one and done’ to his post-season record. He finished the game with a passer rating of 90.4 after posting a regular season average of 95.0. His QBR for the Chargers game was 75.4, just a touch under his regular season average of 79.3.

Manning threw for 310 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. It’s fair to say he had a better game than his opposite number, Philip Rivers, who threw for 216 yards with one interception. Manning didn’t even touch the ball in overtime as Sproles and Rivers led a Chargers drive from the Colts 30 yard line for a touchdown. His WPA was 0.20 after a regular season average of 0.31.

Summary: Manning did have the ball in the fourth quarter while the Colts were up by three and with a win percentage as high as 88.3%. They failed to convert that promising drive into points but this was more to do with a costly holding penalty and a faltering run game than anything Manning did. He was not at fault for this loss but a three time MVP losing in the first round of the playoffs for the sixth time fills a lot more column inches than an untimely holding penalty for an offensive lineman.

Super Bowl XLIV, Sunday February 7th, 2010

Spread: Colts -4.5

Result: Saints 31, Colts 17 

The ESPN recap of Super Bowl 44 put this Saints victory down to the intangible and debatable quality of ‘heart’. For someone to use something so unquantifiable as ‘heart’ as a way to describe victory when we have any number of statistics at our fingertips is part of the reason why this whole narrative around Manning even exists. I don’t have a metric or scale, or anything in fact, to measure ‘heart’ so let’s take a look at the game statistics instead.

Manning went 31-45 for 333 yards with a touchdown and an interception for a passer rating of 88.5 and a QBR of 64.0. His regular season numbers were 99.9 and 82.8 respectively (It is worth noting that when taking his three playoff games together, his post season passer rating and QBR figures are almost identical to his regular season numbers).

His WPA was 0.29 which is high but again, a drop from his regular season average of 0.38.  The game will be remembered for the Saints surprise onside kick to start the second half but for Manning, his fourth quarter interception is how most people frame his contribution to the game. It killed off any opportunity the Colts had to launch an already unlikely comeback (the Saints win % when Manning threw the pick was at 89.6%).

Summary: Brees outplayed Manning in the biggest game of the year and Manning threw the game-ending pick. In hindsight, this game probably sounded the death knell for Manning and his post-season reputation. Sure, he could have changed it for the better with more wins in his later years but coming off the back of yet another MVP title and going into the game with his team 4.5 point favorites, Manning just had to win to keep the naysayers quiet. Throwing an interception in the fourth quarter made sure they were even louder.

AFC Wild Card Round, Saturday January 8th, 2011

Spread: Colts -2

Result: Jets 17, Colts 16 

Manning went 18-26 for 225 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. His passer rating of 108.7 was actually higher than his regular season average of 91.9 as was his QBR. This would seem to indicate that Manning had a slightly above average game and gave the Colts a decent shot at victory. His WPA of 0.24 confirms this as it was also higher than his regular season average of 0.19.

For the Manning bashers this loss is made even more egregious as it came against a certain Mark Sanchez. Sanchez didn’t exactly light up the stat sheet however as he went 18-31 for 189 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. It was mainly the Jets defense that defeated Peyton but who cares right? ‘PEYTON MANNING LOST TO MARK SANCHEZ, MARK FREAKING SANCHEZ, IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!”

Manning managed two fourth quarter drives to keep the Colts in the game and put them ahead only to see Antonio Cromartie return a kick off for 47 yards to set up the game winning field goal.

Summary: By the time Vinatieri made the 50-yard field goal for the Colts, they had a 87.5 win % percentage. Some people criticized the Colts and Manning for their time management and obviously just Manning himself for his failure to complete a game sealing pass on 3^rd and 6 with 1:02 remaining but in reality, no one person lost this game. If you really want to assign blame and give credit for one specific play then it would have to be Antonio Cromartie for his 47 yard kickoff return and the Colts special teams for their failure to make a tackle, but like most games, this game was decided by a number of small plays at certain moments throughout the game.

AFC Divisional Round, Saturday January 12th, 2013

Spread: Broncos -9

Result: Ravens 38, Broncos 35

The ‘Peyton Manning collapses in the big moments’ narrative is rivaled only by its younger brother, the ‘Peyton Manning can’t perform in cold weather’ narrative, for entrance into the Manning hot take hall of fame. The cold weather question, or it being presented as an inarguable truth, can easily be debunked by taking a look at Manning’s splits separated by weather temperatures. There is no pattern of him delivering sup par performances when the weather is colder, but that still doesn’t stop people watching one play and drawing a simplistic, all-inclusive opinion.

That one play is of course Manning’s interception at the end of the first quarter of overtime. His pass was picked off by Corey Graham and immediately dropped the Broncos win percentage from 74.1% to 9%. It was a crippling mistake no doubt but it also doesn’t negate the positive contributions Manning made to the Broncos chances of advancing to the AFC title game. Manning went 28-43 for 290 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He had a passer rating of 88.3 and a total QBR of 56.4. These were noticeably down from his season long averages of 105.8 and 82.4 respectively but his WPA of 0.29 was actually higher than his regular season average of 0.24.

The WPA stat is crucial here as it provides a figure for what most rational people who watched the game already knew, Manning did not have a perfect game but he most certainly helped his team far more than he hindered them. The Broncos had a 100% win percentage when Britton Colquitt punted the ball back to the Ravens with 1:15 left in the fourth. Earlier in the fourth, Manning led a drive from the Broncos 12-yard line that ended with him throwing a 17-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas. This drive was forgotten by the people who routinely criticize Manning’s playoff performances about as quickly as it took the Broncos defense to give up the game-tying touchdown; somewhere in the region of 20-30 seconds.

Summary: There is no doubt that Manning’s interception in overtime was pretty crucial in deciding who won this game. It was poor execution on top of already poor decision-making. The point is, and the point of all of this is, that despite what some people would have you believe, the outcomes of games are not decided by one bad decision. Manning made a mistake in a crucial moment but he also made many good decisions throughout the game that put the Broncos in a good position to win.

Super Bowl XLVIII, Sunday February 2nd, 2014

Spread: Broncos -9

Result: Ravens 38, Broncos 35

If the loss against the Ravens was defined by a team and a quarterback having a pretty decent day but ultimately making one or two crucial mistakes, then this game came down to a team and a quarterback playing terribly from the first minute to the last.

For his part, Manning went 34-49 for 280 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions for a rating of 73.5 and a QBR of 24.4. These are obviously considerably lower than his season averages where he posted figures of 115.1 and 82.9 respectively. His WPA was -0.19 after a regular season average of 0.36, further emphasizing his drop off in performance. 

Summary: There are no excuses for Manning in this game as he played poorly and the Broncos lost. It’s important to point out however, that the game wasn’t won or lost by Peyton Manning’s inability to perform in the big moments. This was a team in the Seahawks that thoroughly out played and out muscled the Broncos from start to finish. Manning was terrible, but not because he faltered under the bright lights, it was because the Seahawks were just too good for him. 

AFC Divisional Round, Sunday January 11th, 2015

Spread: Broncos -7

Result: Colts 24, Broncos 13

Although the Broncos were seven point favorites going into this game, there had been enough subpar performances from Manning in the final weeks of the regular season that his poor showing here wasn’t too much of a surprise. He went 26-46 for 211 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions. His QBR of 27.9 and his passer rating of 75.5 were substantially lower than his regular season averages of 77.2 and 101.5 respectively.

Manning started the game strongly, connecting with Demaryius Thomas on a one yard touchdown pass but that was to prove to be a rare highlight for a Broncos offense that faltered on numerous occasions throughout the day. Manning’s WPA after the game was -0.31 after a regular season average of 0.25.

Summary: Just like the previous year’s loss against the Seahawks, the analysis needed here is minimal. This ranks as one of Manning’s most insipid playoff performances and outside of the opening drive mentioned above, he repeatedly failed to get the Broncos offense moving. There were even some failures in the fourth quarter for all the Manning critics to salivate over. 

So there they are. Manning’s 13 post-season losses in all their glory. One obvious factor that gets lost in the discussion about his record is just the sheer amount of games and how we view them. To put yourself in the position to lose 13 playoff games is something to be applauded and factored in when discussing what those losses actually represent. And yet for some reason this fact gets forgotten about and people focus squarely on the outcome as opposed to the process.

When we describe players as 'clutch' or not, all we are doing is engaging in some two bit cod psychology. We have no idea how Peyton Manning feels as he gets ready to snap the ball with under two minutes left in a particularly tight game. What we can say, and with some certainty, is that there is no pattern of him repeatedly failing in the important moments of big games.